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My take on the general election

I don’t claim to be, by any means, a political expert, despite being an "inherited politician" by name. But I’ve followed the election campaign a bit. The election, as the polls see it, is too close to call, and I doubt the accuracy of these suggestions, but here’s my take:

National will gain more party votes than Labour, though neither will gain majority. Act will not be re-elected, that is, Worth will keep his Epsom seat. All other minor parties will make it back to parliament. NZ First and the Greens will both make the five-percent threshold, United Future and the Progressives will win their leaders’ electorates and will not need overhang seats. The Māori Party will create overhang seats for each electorate seat they win except one. Because of Act‘s absence, Labour will form a stronger and larger coalition, but a minority one, and will therefore run the next term in government. National will be in the opposition benches.

In summary (if you couldn’t be bothered decipering that), National will win the party vote, but Labour will become the government.

I really don’t know much about this stuff, so I’m probably wrong it just about every aspect. But we’ll see.

New Zealand uses a Mixed Member Proportional electoral system, where the proportion of seats in parliament is the same as that of the distribution of party votes minus any votes which were for parties that did not cross the threshold.  The threshold is one successful electorate candidate or five percent of the party vote.  Overhang seats are extra seats that have to be added because a party won more electorates than seats it was entitled to from the party vote.

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