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Prelim election results and my take on them

If the preliminary results are anything to go by, most of my predictions were wrong.

Labour gained more party votes than National, marginally (40.7% to 39.6%), not National more than Labour as I predicted. Act did get re-elected (1.5% + one electorate), contrary to my predictions. The Māori Party created overhang seats for all except two of its seats, not all except one (2.0% + four electorates).

All that has to happen now is for National to form the government and Labour to become the opposition for my last prediction in that respect to be wrong too.

I was right, however, about the other minor parties, although I guess anyone could predict those ones. NZ First and the Greens both had to rely on the five-percent threshold to get them through, both making it but neither with much room (NZ First 5.8%, Greens 5.1%). United Future and the Progressives needing their leaders’ electorates to keep their places (2.7% and 1.2% respectively, each with one electorate seat). No other party crossed the threshold.

The Epsom electorate

I didn’t think Hide could do it. I thought, he can go around Epsom as much as he wants, but the few votes Worth loses will be made up for by the Nash supporters who strategically vote for Worth (with, I might add, Nash’s backing).

Well, if I assume for a second that Hide’s extra votes were all of Worth, and some of Nash’s supporters pulled strategic votes, then there were 3,000 Labour voters that weren’t smart enough.

Hide gained about 6,600 votes. If I take that off Worth, then he must’ve regained about 3,500 votes from other sources. Nash lost about 2,800 votes, and the other 700 probably came from minor parties. But Worth would still need 3,100 votes to tie with Hide. Nash had 5,100 voters behind him — if 3,100 of them had realised what a vote for National on their behalf would do to Act, even if they were Labour supporters, then Act would not have been re-elected. Clearly rich does not mean smart.

Of course, this doesn’t take into account that special votes have yet to be counted, flawing the use of raw numbers; and also the many other minor parties that put candidates forward for this electorate. It also uses very, very big and unjustified assumptions: it is hardly likely that all of Hide’s votes were gained from Worth. But you get the idea — I overestimated Epsom’s Labour supporters’ ability to think tactically. (On the other hand, they may have wanted Hide to be in parliament.)

Post-election talks

This will probably be as interesting as the election campaign. The two centrist parties said they’ll go either way, but NZ First won’t go into formal coalition and United Future won’t work with the Greens. Here, we become at risk of a hung government, necessitating another election. But wait, NZ First says that they will back parties in the interests of stability, that with the greater party vote in preference. Of course, the Greens and Progressives are stuck to Labour, and Act to National . It’s all like some giant puzzle that might end up in a hung government. Also, there was the 1996 election where NZ First said they wouldn’t go into coalition then did just that. So, yea. Anything can happen. It’ll be interesting to see.

Related Links

  • 2005 Preliminary Election Results
  • 2002 Official Election Results
  • Electoral Commission
  • Televison New Zealand (media)
  • New Zealand Herald (media)
  • Lots of party websites that I can’t be bothered listing here

    Statistics were taken off the Election Results and 2002 Results websites. No copyright infringement intended.

    This blog represents my view and my view alone. I make no guarantee about the accuracy of the factual statements. I have not double-checked one before publishing this entry. This blog might be the exact contrary to what’s actually happening. On the other hand, it might not. Just don’t take this blog as indisputable — it was written by some random person with some random interest in this year’s general election. Okay?

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