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Impact of special votes on the final election result

This is a follow-up to my earlier post, What it would take to steal a seat in the special votes.

Party

% votes in prelim count

% special votes

Swing from prelim

Prelim total seats

Final total seats

Gain/loss
National Party
47.99%
41.76%
-6.2%
60
59
-1
Labour Party
27.13%
30.41%
+3.3%
34
34
 
Green Party
10.62%
14.67%
+4.1%
13
14
+1
New Zealand First Party
6.84%
4.84%
-2.0%
8
8
 
Maori Party
1.35%
2.11%
+0.8%
2
2
 
ACT New Zealand
1.07%
1.13%
+0.1%
1
1
 
Mana
1.00%
1.65%
+0.7%
1
1
 
United Future
0.61%
0.53%
-0.1%
1
1
 
Conservative Party
2.76%
1.72%
-1.0%
0
0
 
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
0.48%
0.92%
+0.4%
0
0
 
Democrats for Social Credit
0.07%
0.12%
+0.05%
0
0
 
Libertarianz
0.07%
0.08%
+0.008%
0
0
 
Alliance
0.05%
0.06%
+0.004%
0
0
 
Total
100.00%
100.00%
0.0%
121
121
0

I said in my earlier post that the Greens would need a 2.23-point swing on National in order to take a seat from them in the actual results. With a 4.1-point swing, they did that with ample room to spare.  Because Labour also gained 3.3 points while National lost ground, the Greens steal from National rather than Labour, even though Labour was more “at risk” of losing their last seat.

The Greens were obviously well short of the 9.6-point swing they would have needed to get two more seats.

As predicted, NZ First had a negative swing—so they lose their position of being the “closest” to another seat.  That 121st seat now belongs to the Labour Party, and NZ First’s next seat would be number 124.  It was impossible for NZ First to lose a seat, so they stay on eight seats.

Labour sort of got close-ish to the 3.73-point swing required to draw a seat from National, but the swings in the other parties would have raised this bar even further for Labour anyway.  They do, however, now claim the first non-qualifying quotient (a.k.a. seat 121, previously held by NZ First).  With another 5,906 votes at the expense of National (a 2.4-point swing in the special votes, or a 0.26-point swing nationally), they could have taken another seat of National.  That would have reduced the National-ACT-United Future total from 61 to 60—just short of a majority.

So, to paraphrase, if Labour had pulled another 5,906 all at National’s expense, they would have forced National to get the support of at least one party other than ACT and United Future (most likely the Maori Party) in order to pass legislation.

It was impossible for all minor parties to lose a seat, and none of them close to doubling their vote, let alone tripling or decupling as required for Mana and United Future.  So they all stayed put.

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