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A Parliament based on the special votes only

Parliament would have looked incredibly different if the country voted the same way that the special voters did.  Note that this is not the “results including special votes”; it’s a hypothetical “special” Parliament that would have existed if tabulated based on the special votes only.

Major differences from the actual Parliament
  1. The Greens would have had 19 seats and the Mana Party two seats.
  2. New Zealand First would not have made it back to Parliament.
  3. Labour would most likely have formed government.

A hypothetical “special-votes” Parliament

Party

% special votes

Electorate seats*

List seats

Total seats

Difference from prelim
National Party
41.76%
41
13
54
-6
Labour Party
30.41%
23
17
40
+6
Green Party
14.67%
0
19
19
+6
Maori Party
2.11%
3
0
3
† 0
ACT New Zealand
1.13%
1
0
1
0
Mana
1.65%
1
1
2
+1
United Future
0.53%
1
0
1
0
New Zealand First Party
4.84%
0
0
0
-8
Conservative Party
1.72%
0
0
0
0
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
0.92%
0
0
0
0
Democrats for Social Credit
0.12%
0
0
0
0
Libertarianz
0.08%
0
0
0
0
Alliance
0.06%
0
0
0
0
Total
100.00%
70
 50
120
-1
* I didn’t take note of the preliminary electorate vote counts, so I’m just using final electorate results here.
† The Maori Party’s seat allocation would have increased by one, from two to three, but because they got three electorate seats this would have just removed the overhang seat.

Special votes have historically favoured the left-wing parties, and it’s quite evident from these numbers: Labour and the Greens had seven percentage points between them more in the special votes than the preliminary results (27.13% and 10.62% respectively).

The biggest change, though, is New Zealand First.  Less than five per cent of special votes ticked New Zealand First, so the special voters would have had NZ First miss out on Parliament altogether.  This, combined with a 6.2-point loss for National, would have seen Labour and the Greens six seats stronger each.

Labour and the Greens would then have had 59 seats between them, just short of a 61-seat majority.  National, ACT and United Future (assuming Mr Dunne still chose to favour National) would have had 56.

The two-seat Mana Party was ruled out by both Mr Key and Mr Goff.  That only leaves the Maori Party.  Even if they did favour National, their three seats wouldn’t have been enough to push National over the 61-seat line.  So it’s a fair bet to say that, whoever the Maori Party talked to first, they would have ended up with Labour.

So basically the special voters voted for a left-wing government.  Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party would have between them commanded 62 seats, enough to govern.  That is very fascinating given how certain it’s always seemed (and still seems) that National had this election in the bag.

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